GLOBAL FACTORS
Island-based public and private sector organisations will undoubtedly need to adjust strategy and policy at regular intervals to take account of a rapidly changing world. The following issues are currently considered to be significantly important to islands and, together with other influencing factors, are being monitored at regular intervals in our research framework:
International Tensions
Territorial conflicts and major internal unrest and disputes on a country-by-country basis have been escalating in frequency. In addition, speculation over future US foreign and national policy creates additional uncertainty. These global tensions and events are inevitably destabilising international relations and markets and may well have further, as yet unknown, negative consequences.
Migration Trends
Many island communities are now in the front line of migration trends which are being driven by civil conflict, climate change, and economic stress primarily in Africa, Middle East, and in Central and South America. This exposure, which presents economic and social challenges for those island communities located on the main migration routes, is likely to intensify rather than decrease in the short and medium term.
Climate Change
Climate change is arguably the greatest common threat facing island communities globally but the subject has dropped down the political agenda in a number of countries. However, latest data reveals some disturbing upward trends in global warming which could well be further exacerbated once US policy is determined. Decisions taken at the November COP30 climate change conference to be held in Brazil will therefore be critical.
Inflationary Triggers
Major inflationary pressures over the last few years have largely diminished. However, further inflation triggers are now likely to reoccur as a result of growing financial instability in many countries, an escalation of current global conflicts, increasing cyber/infrastructure security threats, and the potential introduction of US trade tariffs with counter-measures being imposed by other major trading nations.
